JobServe Community Stadium · Analysis updated 12:32 UTC
Colchester United U21 vs Sheffield United U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Colchester United U21 and 2.13 for Sheffield United U21, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Sheffield United U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sheffield United U21 win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colchester United U21 home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Sheffield United U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sheffield United U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 33% / 21% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Colchester United U21 and 2.13 for Sheffield United U21, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.1%
- 1–17.6%
- 2–27.2%
- 2–16.8%
- 1–35.7%
Recent form
Colchester United U21
- 2026-10-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Swansea City U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry City U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Wednesday U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Wigan Athletic U21 · 4-6 (L)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Barnsley U21 · 3-4 (L)
Sheffield United U21
- 2026-09-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Barnsley U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton Athletic U21 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff City U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City U21 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham United U21 · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-31T18:00:00.000Z · Colchester United U21 2-4 Sheffield United U21 (Professional Development League)
- 2025-04-22T13:00:00.000Z · Colchester United U21 0-3 Sheffield United U21 (Professional Development League)
- 2024-05-10T18:00:00.000Z · Colchester United U21 2-3 Sheffield United U21 (Professional Development League)
- 2023-05-02T13:00:00.000Z · Colchester United U21 1-7 Sheffield United U21 (Professional Development League)
Professional Development League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Res. | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 2 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Coventry City U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Sheffield United U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Cardiff City U21 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | Bristol City U21 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 7 | Swansea City U21 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Wigan Athletic U21 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Huddersfield Town U21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Barnsley U21 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Queens Park Rangers U21 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Peterborough United U21 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Sheffield Wednesday U21 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Colchester United U21 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Hull City U21 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Millwall U21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sheffield United U21 win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.