Colchester Community Stadium · Analysis updated 14:43 UTC
Colchester vs Cheltenham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Colchester and 0.94 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Colchester the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Colchester win
47.9% probability
Expected goals
1.41 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colchester home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cheltenham away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 53.9% vs market 43.4%, edge +10.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.4% | 53.9% | 1.86 | +10.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.83 | 51.7% | 52.1% | 1.92 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 73.0% | 1.37 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.8% | 27.0% | 3.70 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.91 | 47.8% | 47.9% | 2.09 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.60 | 25.4% | 25.1% | 3.98 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 75.6% | 74.9% | 1.34 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 56.6% | 46.1% | 2.17 | -10.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Colchester
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Luton · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shrewsbury · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cheltenham · 1-1 (D)
Cheltenham
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Newport County · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Fleetwood Town · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oldham · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham Hotspur U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Salford City · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · Colchester 4-1 Cheltenham (League Two)
- 2025-11-29T15:00:00.000Z · Colchester 2-0 Cheltenham (League Two)
- 2025-03-08T15:00:00.000Z · Colchester 1-0 Cheltenham (League Two)
- 2025-01-14T19:00:00.000Z · Colchester 1-2 Cheltenham (EFL Trophy)
- 2024-10-19T14:00:00.000Z · Colchester 1-2 Cheltenham (League Two)
- 2021-04-24T14:00:00.000Z · Colchester 0-1 Cheltenham (League Two)
- 2020-12-29T19:45:00.000Z · Colchester 0-0 Cheltenham (League Two)
- 2020-02-29T15:00:00.000Z · Colchester 0-2 Cheltenham (League Two)
- 2019-11-23T15:00:00.000Z · Colchester 1-1 Cheltenham (League Two)
- 2019-02-09T15:00:00.000Z · Colchester 3-0 Cheltenham (League Two)
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | Barnet | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Cheltenham | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 21 |
| 4 | Crewe | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 21 |
| 5 | York | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Walsall | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 19 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Exeter City | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 18 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 12 | Gillingham | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 14 | Swindon Town | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -4 | 16 |
| 16 | Newport County | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 17 | Rochdale | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 15 |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 19 | Northampton | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 20 | Oldham | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 21 | Colchester | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Colchester win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.