Colchester vs Exeter City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Colchester and 0.78 for Exeter City, a combined total of 1.78. That distribution gives Colchester the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

72.6% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 0.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Colchester home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Exeter City away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Colchester to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 33% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Colchester and 0.78 for Exeter City, a combined 1.78 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Colchester win40%

Draw33%

Exeter City win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

67%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals53%

Over 2.5 goals26%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score34%

Correct score

0–016.9%
1–016.9%
0–113.1%
1–113.1%
2–08.5%

Recent form

Colchester

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Luton · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shrewsbury · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cheltenham · 1-1 (D)

Exeter City

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shrewsbury · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxford United · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotherham · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bristol Rovers · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheltenham · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salford City	10	6	1	3	5	19
2	Barnet	8	5	3	0	9	18
3	Crewe	10	4	6	0	5	18
4	Gillingham	10	4	4	2	5	16
5	York	9	4	3	2	6	15
6	Walsall	9	3	6	0	6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	4	3	3	3	15
8	Cheltenham	10	4	3	3	0	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	-2	15
10	Rochdale	10	4	2	4	-1	14
11	Grimsby	10	3	4	3	2	13
12	Newport County	10	3	4	3	1	13
13	Tranmere	10	2	6	2	0	12
14	Exeter City	10	3	3	4	0	12
15	Accrington ST	10	2	5	3	-1	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	2	5	3	-1	11
17	Swindon Town	10	3	2	5	-5	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	3	2	5	-6	11
19	Colchester	9	2	4	3	-3	10
20	Rotherham	10	2	4	4	-4	10
21	Oldham	9	2	2	5	-4	8
22	Port Vale	8	2	2	4	-5	8
23	Northampton	8	1	4	3	-3	7
24	Crawley Town	8	1	2	5	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.