Colchester vs Rochdale Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Colchester and 1.00 for Rochdale, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Colchester the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Colchester win

65.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.25 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Colchester home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rochdale away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Colchester to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 19% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Colchester and 1.00 for Rochdale, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Colchester win66%

Draw19%

Rochdale win16%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

34%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

2–09.8%
2–19.8%
1–08.7%
1–18.7%
3–07.4%

Recent form

Colchester

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Luton · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shrewsbury · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cheltenham · 1-1 (D)

Rochdale

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tranmere · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Huddersfield · 0-5 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swindon Town · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool U21 · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salford City	12	8	1	3	7	25
2	Barnet	10	6	3	1	8	21
3	Crewe	12	5	6	1	4	21
4	Walsall	11	4	7	0	9	19
5	Cheltenham	12	5	3	4	-1	18
6	York	11	4	5	2	6	17
7	Gillingham	12	4	5	3	3	17
8	Shrewsbury	12	5	2	5	-4	17
9	Chesterfield	12	4	4	4	2	16
10	Exeter City	12	4	4	4	2	16
11	Accrington ST	12	3	6	3	1	15
12	Newport County	12	3	6	3	1	15
13	Tranmere	12	3	6	3	0	15
14	Rochdale	12	4	3	5	-2	15
15	Swindon Town	12	4	3	5	-3	15
16	Bristol Rovers	12	5	0	7	-4	15
17	Grimsby	12	3	5	4	0	14
18	Fleetwood Town	12	3	5	4	-1	14
19	Colchester	11	2	6	3	-3	12
20	Port Vale	10	3	3	4	-4	12
21	Oldham	11	3	2	6	-4	11
22	Rotherham	12	2	5	5	-6	11
23	Northampton	10	2	4	4	-2	10
24	Crawley Town	10	1	2	7	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Colchester win, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.