· Analysis updated 06:43 UTC
Colchester vs West Ham United U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Colchester and 1.95 for West Ham United U21, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives West Ham United U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colchester home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
West Ham United U21 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates West Ham United U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 34% / 22% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Colchester and 1.95 for West Ham United U21, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.6%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–35.5%
Recent form
Colchester
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Northampton · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chesterfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Exeter City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Luton · 1-1 (D)
West Ham United U21
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Burnley U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Monaco U21 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Norwich City U21 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Braintree · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Millwall U21 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.