· Analysis updated 04:16 UTC
Colchester vs Worcester City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Colchester and 1.14 for Worcester City, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Colchester the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colchester home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Worcester City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Colchester to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 28% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Colchester and 1.14 for Worcester City, a combined 2.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–110.4%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
Colchester
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Northampton · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chesterfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Exeter City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Luton · 1-1 (D)
Worcester City
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Chorley · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chorley · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stourbridge · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rushall Olympic · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kettering Town · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.