Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.60 expected goals for Colegiales and 0.85 for Tristan Suarez, a combined total of 1.45. That distribution gives Tristan Suarez the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 18% for over 2.5 goals and 26% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 24%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

75.8% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.60 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Colegiales home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tristan Suarez away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tristan Suarez to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 24% / 37% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.60 goals for Colegiales and 0.85 for Tristan Suarez, a combined 1.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Colegiales win24%

Draw37%

Tristan Suarez win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

63%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals42%

Over 2.5 goals18%

Over 3.5 goals6%

Both teams to score26%

Correct score

0–023.5%
0–119.9%
1–014.1%
1–112.0%
0–28.4%

Recent form

Colegiales

2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tristan Suarez · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Atlético Güemes · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Chacarita Juniors · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martin S.J. · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nueva Chicago · 1-0 (W)

Tristan Suarez

2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Colegiales · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Quilmes · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Midland · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlanta · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martin S.J. · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera Nacional table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	33	18	8	7	9	62
2	Deportivo Moron	33	17	7	9	17	58
3	Godoy Cruz	33	16	9	8	13	57
4	Deportivo Madryn	34	14	12	8	17	54
5	Colon Santa Fe	34	14	12	8	14	54
6	Ciudad de Bolívar	34	13	12	9	1	51
7	CA Estudiantes	33	13	9	11	4	48
8	Almirante Brown	34	12	12	10	4	48
9	Los Andes	33	9	13	11	1	40
10	Chaco For Ever	33	10	10	13	-2	40
11	Racing Cordoba	33	10	10	13	-9	40
12	Defensores De Belgrano	33	8	13	12	-7	37
13	San Telmo	33	9	10	14	-9	37
14	Atletico Mitre	33	7	15	11	-10	36
15	Central Norte	33	6	16	11	-9	34
16	All Boys	33	6	16	11	-10	34
17	Acassuso	34	8	9	17	-10	33
18	San Miguel	34	6	14	14	-14	32
1	Tristan Suarez	34	16	14	4	18	62
2	Temperley	33	16	11	6	13	59
3	Atlanta	34	18	4	12	7	58
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	33	15	10	8	8	55
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	14	10	10	6	52
6	Midland	33	14	9	10	12	51
7	Colegiales	34	14	8	12	4	50
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	13	9	12	7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	33	12	10	11	2	46
10	Atletico DE Rafaela	34	12	9	13	-6	45
11	San Martin Tucuman	33	10	13	10	2	43
12	Almagro	33	11	8	14	-9	41
13	Agropecuario	34	10	10	14	-11	40
14	Quilmes	34	10	9	15	1	39
15	Patronato	34	7	16	11	-4	37
16	Nueva Chicago	33	9	9	15	-8	36
17	Chacarita Juniors	34	10	6	18	-9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	33	5	8	20	-33	23

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 75.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 26% and over 2.5 goals at 18%.

A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.