Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B · Analysis updated 09:45 UTC
Colegios Diocesanos vs Cultural Leonesa II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Colegios Diocesanos and 1.38 for Cultural Leonesa II, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Colegios Diocesanos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colegios Diocesanos home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cultural Leonesa II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–18.2%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Colegios Diocesanos
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Calasanz de Soria · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Salamanca II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Almazán · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs UD Santa Marta · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Burgos Promesas · 0-3 (L)
Cultural Leonesa II
- 2026-08-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Gijón II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Mansillés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-02T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tordesillas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Numancia II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cristo Atlético · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-05T15:00:00.000Z · Colegios Diocesanos 0-3 Cultural Leonesa II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2025-11-22T15:00:00.000Z · Colegios Diocesanos 2-2 Cultural Leonesa II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2024-05-11T14:00:00.000Z · Colegios Diocesanos 0-2 Cultural Leonesa II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2024-01-21T15:00:00.000Z · Colegios Diocesanos 0-1 Cultural Leonesa II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2022-03-06T11:00:00.000Z · Colegios Diocesanos 1-4 Cultural Leonesa II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2021-12-08T15:00:00.000Z · Colegios Diocesanos 1-1 Cultural Leonesa II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristo Atlético | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Cultural Leonesa II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Burgos Promesas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Bembibre | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | UD Santa Marta | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Palencia CF | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Mansillés | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Almazán | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Guijuelo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Arandina | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Calasanz de Soria | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Villaralbo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Turégano | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Unionistas II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Colegios Diocesanos | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 17 | Salamanca II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Mirandés II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.