The Showgrounds · Referee T. Marshall · Analysis updated 05:09 UTC
Coleraine FC vs Ballymena United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Coleraine FC and 0.98 for Ballymena United, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Coleraine FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Coleraine FC win
51.3% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Coleraine FC home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ballymena United away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.3%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Coleraine FC
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crusaders FC · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Larne · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cliftonville FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bangor · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Linfield · 1-3 (L)
Ballymena United
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newington Youth · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crusaders FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Limavady United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cliftonville FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portadown · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · Coleraine FC 3-2 Ballymena United (Premiership)
- 2026-02-20T19:45:00.000Z · Coleraine FC 1-0 Ballymena United (Premiership)
- 2025-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Coleraine FC 0-2 Ballymena United (Premiership)
- 2025-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · Coleraine FC 3-1 Ballymena United (Premiership)
- 2024-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Coleraine FC 2-2 Ballymena United (Premiership)
- 2024-10-19T14:00:00.000Z · Coleraine FC 1-0 Ballymena United (Premiership)
- 2024-08-16T18:45:00.000Z · Coleraine FC 4-2 Ballymena United (Premiership)
- 2023-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Coleraine FC 1-3 Ballymena United (Premiership)
- 2023-11-07T19:45:00.000Z · Coleraine FC 1-1 Ballymena United (League Cup)
- 2023-10-21T14:00:00.000Z · Coleraine FC 1-3 Ballymena United (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine FC | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 34 |
| 2 | Linfield | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Larne | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Glentoran | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Carrick Rangers | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Ballymena United | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Cliftonville FC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Crusaders FC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -12 | 15 |
| 9 | Dungannon Swifts | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 13 |
| 11 | Portadown | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 | Bangor | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Coleraine FC win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.