The Showgrounds · Referee S. Gregg · Analysis updated 09:49 UTC
Coleraine FC vs Crusaders FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Coleraine FC and 1.03 for Crusaders FC, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Coleraine FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Coleraine FC win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Coleraine FC home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Crusaders FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Coleraine FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 24% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Coleraine FC and 1.03 for Crusaders FC, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–16.4%
Recent form
Coleraine FC
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crusaders FC · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Larne · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cliftonville FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bangor · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Linfield · 1-3 (L)
Crusaders FC
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ballymena United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Larne · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Carrick Rangers · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Linfield · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine FC | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 34 |
| 2 | Linfield | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Larne | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Glentoran | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Carrick Rangers | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Ballymena United | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Cliftonville FC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Crusaders FC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -12 | 15 |
| 9 | Dungannon Swifts | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 13 |
| 11 | Portadown | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 | Bangor | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Coleraine FC win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.