The Showgrounds · Referee I. McNabb · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Coleraine FC vs Larne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Coleraine FC and 1.26 for Larne, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Coleraine FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Coleraine FC win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Coleraine FC home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Larne away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Coleraine FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 23% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Coleraine FC and 1.26 for Larne, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.6%
Recent form
Coleraine FC
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crusaders FC · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Larne · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cliftonville FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bangor · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Linfield · 1-3 (L)
Larne
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bangor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Linfield · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Coleraine FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crusaders FC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Carrick Rangers · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine FC | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 34 |
| 2 | Linfield | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Larne | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Glentoran | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Carrick Rangers | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Ballymena United | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Cliftonville FC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Crusaders FC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -12 | 15 |
| 9 | Dungannon Swifts | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 13 |
| 11 | Portadown | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 | Bangor | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Coleraine FC win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.