Coleraine FC vs Linfield Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Coleraine FC and 0.98 for Linfield, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Coleraine FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Coleraine FC win

49.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Coleraine FC home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Linfield away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Coleraine FC win49%

Draw26%

Linfield win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–012.6%
1–112.3%
2–09.5%
2–19.2%
0–08.4%

Recent form

Coleraine FC

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crusaders FC · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Larne · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cliftonville FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bangor · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Linfield · 1-3 (L)

Linfield

2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Coleraine FC · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crusaders FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Portadown · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dungannon Swifts · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Carrick Rangers · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · Coleraine FC 3-0 Linfield (Premiership)
2025-12-30T19:45:00.000Z · Coleraine FC 3-1 Linfield (Premiership)
2025-11-08T17:30:00.000Z · Coleraine FC 1-1 Linfield (Premiership)
2025-10-28T19:45:00.000Z · Coleraine FC 2-2 Linfield (Premiership)
2025-04-26T16:30:00.000Z · Coleraine FC 1-0 Linfield (Premiership)
2025-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · Coleraine FC 2-0 Linfield (Premiership)
2024-12-14T15:00:00.000Z · Coleraine FC 0-3 Linfield (Premiership)
2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Coleraine FC 0-3 Linfield (Premiership)
2024-04-16T18:45:00.000Z · Coleraine FC 2-2 Linfield (Premiership)
2024-02-16T19:45:00.000Z · Coleraine FC 3-0 Linfield (Premiership)

Premiership table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Coleraine FC	13	11	1	1	19	34
2	Linfield	13	10	2	1	10	32
3	Larne	10	7	1	2	11	22
4	Glentoran	12	6	2	4	6	20
5	Carrick Rangers	13	5	3	5	2	18
6	Ballymena United	11	4	3	4	2	15
7	Cliftonville FC	13	5	0	8	0	15
8	Crusaders FC	13	5	0	8	-12	15
9	Dungannon Swifts	12	4	2	6	-5	14
10	Limavady United	12	4	1	7	-6	13
11	Portadown	13	2	2	9	-12	8
12	Bangor	13	1	3	9	-15	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Coleraine FC win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.