· Analysis updated 14:46 UTC
Collerense vs Santanyí Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Collerense and 1.45 for Santanyí, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Collerense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.1% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Collerense home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Santanyí away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Collerense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Collerense and 1.45 for Santanyí, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–17.7%
Recent form
Collerense
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santanyí · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Peña Deportiva · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Portmany · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rotlet Molinar · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-04-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Constància · 0-4 (L)
Santanyí
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Llosetense · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Porreres · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Mercadal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcúdia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Constància · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.