Collina d'Oro vs Gambarogno - Contone Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Collina d'Oro and 0.95 for Gambarogno - Contone, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Collina d'Oro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Collina d'Oro win

48.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.44 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Collina d'Oro home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gambarogno - Contone away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Collina d'Oro win48%

Draw27%

Gambarogno - Contone win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–013.2%
1–112.5%
2–09.5%
0–09.2%
2–19.0%

Recent form

Collina d'Oro

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wettswil-Bonstetten · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Gallen II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Eschen / Mauren · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Freienbach · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Winterthur II · 1-0 (W)

Gambarogno - Contone

2026-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Collina d'Oro · 0-3 (L)
2025-06-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lachen / Altendorf · 2-2 (D)
2025-06-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Buochs · 0-4 (L)
2025-05-28T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Thalwil · 2-0 (W)
2025-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Muri · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · Collina d'Oro 3-0 Gambarogno - Contone (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-05-25T15:30:00.000Z · Collina d'Oro 1-1 Gambarogno - Contone (2. Liga Interregional - Group 3)
2023-10-28T16:00:00.000Z · Collina d'Oro 2-1 Gambarogno - Contone (2. Liga Interregional - Group 3)
2023-04-06T18:45:00.000Z · Collina d'Oro 2-0 Gambarogno - Contone (2. Liga Interregional - Group 4)
2022-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · Collina d'Oro 1-1 Gambarogno - Contone (2. Liga Interregional - Group 4)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Collina d'Oro win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.