Monumental David Arellano · Referee Diego Flores Seguel · Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
Colo Colo vs Concepción Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Colo Colo and 0.86 for Concepción, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Colo Colo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Colo Colo win
59.7% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colo Colo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Concepción away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Colo Colo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 23% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Colo Colo and 0.86 for Concepción, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 2–011.3%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.0%
Recent form
Colo Colo
- 2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z · A vs D. Puerto Montt · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T23:00:00.000Z · H vs A. Italiano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs A. Italiano · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Concepción · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Huachipato · 0-0 (D)
Concepción
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs O'Higgins · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs O'Higgins · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Curico Unido · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Curico Unido · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Colo Colo · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 54 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | U. Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 39 |
| 5 | Palestino | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 37 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 7 | Coquimbo Unido | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 32 |
| 8 | Concepción | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | -1 | 32 |
| 9 | Nublense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | -9 | 32 |
| 10 | Huachipato | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 31 |
| 11 | D. La Serena | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | -5 | 30 |
| 12 | A. Italiano | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | -5 | 28 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 27 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -10 | 25 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -22 | 23 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -21 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Colo Colo win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.