· Referee F. Exner · Analysis updated 00:16 UTC
Colombia U19 vs China PR U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Colombia U19 and 1.12 for China PR U20, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Colombia U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Colombia U19 win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colombia U19 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Colombia U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.56 goals for Colombia U19 and 1.12 for China PR U20, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–17.7%
Recent form
Colombia U19
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chile U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panama U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Peru U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tunisia U23 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Congo DR U20 · 2-2 (D)
China PR U20
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tournoi Maurice Revello table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal U20 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 13 |
| 2 | Côte d'Ivoire U20 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Tunisia U23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Congo DR U20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Japan U20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Saudi Arabia U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | China PR U20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 8 | Canada U20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 9 | Colombia U19 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 10 | Venezuela U20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Colombia U19 win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.