Estadio Fiscal de Talca · Referee Khaled Al Teris, Saudi Arabia · Analysis updated 16:11 UTC
Colombia U20 vs South Africa U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Colombia U20 and 1.08 for South Africa U20, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives South Africa U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates South Africa U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 35% / 30% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Colombia U20 and 1.08 for South Africa U20, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 66% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 70/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–112.8%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–011.9%
- 1–27.2%
Recent form
Colombia U20
South Africa U20
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mozambique U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Zambia U20 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Eswatini U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Angola U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Lesotho U20 · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
World Cup - U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina U20 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Morocco U20 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Colombia U20 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | France U20 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | United States U20 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 |
| 6 | Japan U20 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 |
| 7 | Mexico U20 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Norway U20 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Ukraine U20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Spain U20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | South Africa U20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Korea Republic U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Paraguay U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | Italy U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Nigeria U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Australia U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 17 | Egypt U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | New Zealand U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 19 | Chile U20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 20 | Panama U20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 21 | Brazil U20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 22 | Saudi Arabia U20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 23 | Cuba U20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 24 | New Caledonia U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -19 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.