Sports Illustrated Stadium · Referee Pierre-Luc Lauziere, Canada · Analysis updated 17:03 UTC
Colombia vs Paraguay Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Colombia and 0.87 for Paraguay, a combined total of 2.12. That distribution gives Colombia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Colombia win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colombia home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Paraguay away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Colombia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 29% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Colombia and 0.87 for Paraguay, a combined 2.12 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.9%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–011.9%
- 0–110.4%
- 2–09.3%
Recent form
Colombia
- 2026-10-06T23:45:00.000Z · H vs Peru · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Paraguay · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Mexico · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-07T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Switzerland · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-04T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Ghana · 1-0 (W)
Paraguay
- 2026-07-04T21:00:00.000Z · H vs France · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-29T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Germany · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-26T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Australia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-20T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Türkiye · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-13T01:00:00.000Z · A vs USA · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Colombia win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.