Hard Rock Stadium · Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Colombia vs Peru Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Colombia and 0.59 for Peru, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Colombia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Colombia win
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 0.59
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colombia home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Peru away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Colombia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 22% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Colombia and 0.59 for Peru, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.8%
- 2–014.8%
- 1–19.9%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–18.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.55 (model 63.1% vs market 59.7%, edge +3.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.55 | 59.7% | 63.1% | 1.58 | +3.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.88 | 32.8% | 34.2% | 2.92 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.36 | 65.7% | 65.8% | 1.52 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.3% | 22.3% | 4.48 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 7.50 | 11.9% | 11.9% | 8.40 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.07 | 88.4% | 88.1% | 1.14 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.8% | 77.7% | 1.29 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.30 | 40.3% | 36.9% | 2.71 | -3.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Colombia
- 2026-10-06T23:45:00.000Z · H vs Peru · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Paraguay · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Mexico · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-07T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Switzerland · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-04T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Ghana · 1-0 (W)
Peru
- 2026-10-06T23:45:00.000Z · A vs Colombia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Canada · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Mexico · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T20:30:00.000Z · A vs USA · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-06-09T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Spain · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Colombia win, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.