· Analysis updated 19:37 UTC
Colón Res. vs Newell's Old Boys Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.82 expected goals for Colón Res. and 1.30 for Newell's Old Boys Res., a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Newell's Old Boys Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Newell's Old Boys Res. win
47.9% probability
Expected goals
0.82 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colón Res. home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newell's Old Boys Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 24% / 29% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.82 goals for Colón Res. and 1.30 for Newell's Old Boys Res., a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 41%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.6%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–011.9%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–09.8%
Recent form
Colón Res.
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Newell's Old Boys Res. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Quilmes 2 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa y Justicia Res. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes La Plata Res · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 · 1-0 (W)
Newell's Old Boys Res.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Newell's Old Boys Res. win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.