Colón vs Oriental Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Colón and 1.35 for Oriental, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Oriental the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

71.6% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Colón home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oriental to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 28% / 27% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Colón and 1.35 for Oriental, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Colón win28%

Draw27%

Oriental win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–112.9%
0–112.6%
1–09.5%
0–09.3%
1–28.7%

Recent form

Colón

2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fenix · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tacuarembo · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-21T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Plaza Colonia · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-16T23:30:00.000Z · H vs La Luz · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerrito · 1-0 (W)

Oriental

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Oriental	6	4	1	1	3	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	7	12
3	Fenix	6	3	2	1	6	11
4	Sportivo Huracan	6	2	4	0	3	10
5	Colón	6	2	3	1	3	9
6	Uruguay Montevideo	6	2	3	1	2	9
7	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	1	9
8	Cerrito	6	2	3	1	0	9
9	La Luz	6	1	4	1	-1	7
10	Miramar	6	1	2	3	-4	5
11	Paysandu	6	1	1	4	-3	4
12	Atenas	6	1	1	4	-6	4
13	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	-7	4
14	Tacuarembo	6	0	3	3	-4	3
1	Atenas	21	12	4	5	12	40
2	Rentistas	21	9	6	6	3	33
3	Oriental	21	8	8	5	7	32
4	Plaza Colonia	21	9	5	7	5	32
5	CA River Plate	21	8	6	7	5	30
6	Colón	21	8	6	7	-3	30
7	Cerrito	21	7	8	6	3	29
8	Fenix	21	7	8	6	3	29
9	La Luz	21	7	6	8	-5	27
10	Sportivo Huracan	21	7	5	9	-6	26
11	Paysandu	21	7	4	10	-2	25
12	Miramar	21	6	7	8	-3	25
13	Tacuarembo	21	6	6	9	-7	24
14	Uruguay Montevideo	21	4	5	12	-12	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.