Dick's Sporting Goods Park · Referee G. Gonzales · Analysis updated 17:53 UTC
Colorado Rapids vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.24 expected goals for Colorado Rapids and 1.11 for Sporting Kansas City, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Colorado Rapids the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Colorado Rapids win
62.9% probability
Expected goals
2.24 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colorado Rapids home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting Kansas City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.8%
- 1–18.7%
- 1–07.9%
- 3–17.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.70 | 55.3% | 57.0% | 1.75 | +1.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.14 | 81.4% | 82.3% | 1.22 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 5.50 | 17.0% | 17.7% | 5.65 | +0.7 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.35 | 39.4% | 40.1% | 2.49 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.75 | 34.4% | 35.0% | 2.86 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.49 | 62.7% | 62.9% | 1.59 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.50 | 37.1% | 37.1% | 2.70 | -0.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.44 | 65.6% | 65.0% | 1.54 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.53 | 60.6% | 59.9% | 1.67 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.14 | 81.4% | 80.6% | 1.24 | -0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.60 | 20.3% | 19.4% | 5.15 | -0.9 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.10 | 44.7% | 43.0% | 2.33 | -1.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Colorado Rapids
- 2026-10-25T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Portland Timbers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-15T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Minnesota United FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T01:30:00.000Z · H vs San Jose Earthquakes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Angeles Galaxy · 2-3 (L)
Sporting Kansas City
- 2026-10-25T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Austin · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Salt Lake · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-15T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Nashville SC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Portland Timbers · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-02T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Sounders · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T01:30:00.000Z · Colorado Rapids 2-0 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
- 2026-03-22T00:30:00.000Z · Colorado Rapids 4-1 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-08-31T00:30:00.000Z · Colorado Rapids 2-4 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-07-05T01:30:00.000Z · Colorado Rapids 1-2 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-09-19T00:30:00.000Z · Colorado Rapids 1-4 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-07-05T01:30:00.000Z · Colorado Rapids 2-1 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-04-09T00:30:00.000Z · Colorado Rapids 1-0 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-03-05T02:30:00.000Z · Colorado Rapids 0-0 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
- 2022-05-19T00:30:00.000Z · Colorado Rapids 1-2 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
- 2022-03-13T02:00:00.000Z · Colorado Rapids 2-0 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 55 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 54 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 51 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 48 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 48 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 46 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 43 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | -9 | 40 |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -4 | 37 |
| 12 | San Diego | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | -3 | 35 |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | -8 | 35 |
| 14 | Austin | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | -17 | 34 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | 6 | 4 | 21 | -40 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 43 | 70 |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 31 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 55 |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 31 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 20 | 55 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 51 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 47 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 46 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | -12 | 42 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | -7 | 42 |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | -15 | 39 |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | 11 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 38 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 12 | New York City FC | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 35 |
| 13 | DC United | 31 | 7 | 12 | 12 | -17 | 33 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | -15 | 30 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -26 | 25 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Colorado Rapids win, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.