CITYPARK · Referee J. Dickerson · Analysis updated 02:43 UTC
Colorado Rapids vs St. Louis City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Colorado Rapids and 1.15 for St. Louis City, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Colorado Rapids the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.2% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colorado Rapids home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
St. Louis City away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–19.9%
- 0–08.6%
- 2–18.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 50.3% vs market 43.5%, edge +6.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 43.5% | 50.3% | 1.99 | +6.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.57 | 59.3% | 60.0% | 1.67 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 72.2% | 72.8% | 1.37 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 2.75 | 32.3% | 32.8% | 3.05 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 27.3% | 27.2% | 3.68 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.20 | 40.4% | 40.0% | 2.50 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 68.5% | 67.2% | 1.49 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 56.5% | 49.7% | 2.01 | -6.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Colorado Rapids
- 2026-10-25T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Portland Timbers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-15T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Minnesota United FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T01:30:00.000Z · H vs San Jose Earthquakes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Angeles Galaxy · 2-3 (L)
St. Louis City
- 2026-10-25T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Salt Lake · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Columbus Crew · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Minnesota United FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-15T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles Galaxy · 6-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-17T01:30:00.000Z · Colorado Rapids 0-3 St. Louis City (US Open Cup)
- 2026-07-26T00:30:00.000Z · Colorado Rapids 0-1 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
- 2026-05-10T01:30:00.000Z · Colorado Rapids 0-1 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-05-25T01:30:00.000Z · Colorado Rapids 1-0 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-02-23T01:30:00.000Z · Colorado Rapids 0-0 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-07-08T01:30:00.000Z · Colorado Rapids 4-1 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-06-20T00:30:00.000Z · Colorado Rapids 3-0 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-07-02T00:30:00.000Z · Colorado Rapids 0-2 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-04-23T01:30:00.000Z · Colorado Rapids 1-1 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.