Weidner Field · Referee C. May · Analysis updated 21:34 UTC
Colorado Springs vs New Mexico United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Colorado Springs and 1.05 for New Mexico United, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Colorado Springs the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Colorado Springs win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colorado Springs home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
New Mexico United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–18.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.38 (model 49.5% vs market 39.1%, edge +10.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.38 | 39.1% | 49.5% | 2.02 | +10.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.83 | 50.9% | 52.4% | 1.91 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Away | 3.40 | 26.1% | 26.5% | 3.77 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.1% | 25.9% | 3.86 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.85 | 47.9% | 47.6% | 2.10 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.5% | 74.1% | 1.35 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.5% | 73.5% | 1.36 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.53 | 60.9% | 50.5% | 1.98 | -10.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Colorado Springs
- 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Tulsa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterey Bay · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Sacramento Republic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Oakland Roots · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Detroit City · 0-0 (D)
New Mexico United
- 2026-09-20T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Springs · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham Legion · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-12T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Indy Eleven · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Vegas Lights · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T01:30:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T01:00:00.000Z · Colorado Springs 0-0 New Mexico United (USL Championship)
- 2026-08-02T01:30:00.000Z · Colorado Springs 0-1 New Mexico United (USL Championship)
- 2026-05-17T01:00:00.000Z · Colorado Springs 4-0 New Mexico United (USL League One Cup)
- 2026-03-28T19:00:00.000Z · Colorado Springs 2-3 New Mexico United (USL Championship)
- 2025-09-25T01:00:00.000Z · Colorado Springs 1-2 New Mexico United (USL Championship)
- 2025-06-29T01:00:00.000Z · Colorado Springs 2-2 New Mexico United (USL League One Cup)
- 2025-06-08T01:00:00.000Z · Colorado Springs 1-1 New Mexico United (USL Championship)
- 2025-02-08T02:00:00.000Z · Colorado Springs 2-2 New Mexico United (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-02-07T02:00:00.000Z · Colorado Springs 2-2 New Mexico United (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-08-25T01:00:00.000Z · Colorado Springs 0-1 New Mexico United (USL Championship)
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 61 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 53 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 51 |
| 4 | Louisville City | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 47 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 45 |
| 6 | Hartford Athletic | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 43 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 42 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -6 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | -10 | 31 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | -6 | 30 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -29 | 21 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 30 | 3 | 5 | 22 | -46 | 14 |
| 1 | New Mexico United | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 52 |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 14 | 51 |
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 50 |
| 4 | Lexington | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 48 |
| 5 | Colorado Springs | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 45 |
| 7 | FC Tulsa | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 43 |
| 8 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | -1 | 40 |
| 9 | Orange County SC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | -1 | 38 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | -20 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Colorado Springs win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.