Historic Crew Stadium · Analysis updated 19:37 UTC
Columbus Crew II vs New York RB II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.99 expected goals for Columbus Crew II and 1.73 for New York RB II, a combined total of 3.72. That distribution gives Columbus Crew II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.99 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Columbus Crew II home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
New York RB II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Columbus Crew II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 21% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.99 goals for Columbus Crew II and 1.73 for New York RB II, a combined 3.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.3%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.5%
Recent form
Columbus Crew II
- 2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs New England II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Carolina Core · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs New England II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Toronto II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Philadelphia Union II · 0-1 (L)
New York RB II
- 2026-10-18T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Crown Legacy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Huntsville City · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huntsville City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T21:00:00.000Z · A vs New York City II · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.