ScottsMiracle-Gro Field · Analysis updated 15:05 UTC
Columbus Crew vs St. Louis City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Columbus Crew and 1.68 for St. Louis City, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives St. Louis City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.9% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Columbus Crew home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
St. Louis City away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St. Louis City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 35% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Columbus Crew and 1.68 for St. Louis City, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.9%
- 0–16.8%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Columbus Crew
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Orlando City SC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Miami · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · A vs CF Montreal · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Orlando City SC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · H vs New York Red Bulls · 0-1 (L)
St. Louis City
- 2026-10-11T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles Galaxy · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-30T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New York Red Bulls · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Toronto FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Minnesota United FC · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.