Estadio Santianes · Analysis updated 16:49 UTC
Colunga vs Praviano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.21 expected goals for Colunga and 1.36 for Praviano, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Colunga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Colunga win
56.7% probability
Expected goals
2.21 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colunga home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Colunga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 20% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.21 goals for Colunga and 1.36 for Praviano, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 66%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.4%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–06.9%
- 2–26.4%
Recent form
Colunga
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Praviano · 5-5 (D)
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs L'Entregu · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Covadonga · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ceares · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Astur · 2-1 (W)
Praviano
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Gijón II | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Covadonga | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 |
| 3 | Mosconia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 4 | Condal | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Siero | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Colunga | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Caudal | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Langreo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Gijón Industrial | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Lealtad | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Praviano | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Ceares | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | L'Entregu | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 | Avilés Stadium | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Llanes | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 2 |
| 16 | San Martín | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 2 |
| 17 | Andes | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | Astur | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Colunga win, at 56.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.