Estadio Santianes · Analysis updated 07:35 UTC
Colunga vs Real Titánico Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Colunga and 1.41 for Real Titánico, a combined total of 3.69. That distribution gives Colunga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Colunga win
57.0% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colunga home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Titánico away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Colunga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 20% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Colunga and 1.41 for Real Titánico, a combined 3.69 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.0%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–06.5%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Colunga
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Praviano · 5-5 (D)
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs L'Entregu · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Covadonga · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ceares · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Astur · 2-1 (W)
Real Titánico
- 2026-05-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Covadonga · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Avilés Stadium · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Llanera · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tuilla · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Llanes · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Gijón II | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Covadonga | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 3 | Condal | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Mosconia | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Siero | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Caudal | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Praviano | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Gijón Industrial | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Lealtad | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Colunga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Langreo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | San Martín | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Avilés Stadium | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | L'Entregu | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | Ceares | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Astur | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Llanes | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | Andes | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Colunga win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.