Estadio Santianes · Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Colunga vs San Martín Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Colunga and 1.14 for San Martín, a combined total of 3.66. That distribution gives Colunga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Colunga win
67.5% probability
Expected goals
2.53 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colunga home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Martín away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.2%
- 3–17.8%
- 1–17.4%
- 3–06.9%
Recent form
Colunga
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Praviano · 5-5 (D)
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs L'Entregu · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Covadonga · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ceares · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Astur · 2-1 (W)
San Martín
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Astur · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Andes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Condal · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gijón Industrial · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Llanes · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · Colunga 2-3 San Martín (Tercera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2025-12-14T11:00:00.000Z · Colunga 1-1 San Martín (Tercera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2025-05-11T17:00:00.000Z · Colunga 3-0 San Martín (Tercera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2025-01-12T15:00:00.000Z · Colunga 2-2 San Martín (Tercera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2022-03-30T15:30:00.000Z · Colunga 1-1 San Martín (Tercera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2021-11-14T14:45:00.000Z · Colunga 1-0 San Martín (Tercera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2021-02-14T11:00:00.000Z · Colunga 0-0 San Martín (Tercera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2020-11-22T14:45:00.000Z · Colunga 0-3 San Martín (Tercera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2019-11-09T14:45:00.000Z · Colunga 1-2 San Martín (Tercera División RFEF - Group 2)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Gijón II | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Covadonga | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 |
| 3 | Mosconia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 4 | Condal | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Siero | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Colunga | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Caudal | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Langreo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Gijón Industrial | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Lealtad | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Praviano | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Ceares | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | L'Entregu | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 | Avilés Stadium | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Llanes | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 2 |
| 16 | San Martín | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 2 |
| 17 | Andes | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | Astur | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Colunga win, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.