· Analysis updated 16:43 UTC
Comercial vs União São João Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Comercial and 1.02 for União São João, a combined total of 1.92. That distribution gives União São João the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.2% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Comercial home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
União São João away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.0%
- 0–014.7%
- 1–113.5%
- 1–013.1%
- 0–27.7%
Recent form
Comercial
- 2026-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · A vs São José EC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs São José EC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs EC São Bernardo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T23:00:00.000Z · H vs EC São Bernardo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Noroeste · 3-4 (L)
União São João
- 2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z · A vs São José EC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs São José EC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Grêmio Prudente · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Grêmio Prudente · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T20:00:00.000Z · Comercial 1-1 União São João (Copa Paulista)
- 2026-07-31T23:00:00.000Z · Comercial 0-1 União São João (Copa Paulista)
- 2025-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · Comercial 0-1 União São João (Copa Paulista)
- 2025-07-12T18:00:00.000Z · Comercial 0-1 União São João (Copa Paulista)
- 2025-02-01T19:00:00.000Z · Comercial 1-3 União São João (Paulista - A3)
Copa Paulista table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | São José EC | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | União São João | 14 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 21 |
| 3 | Primavera SP | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 18 |
| 4 | Grêmio Prudente | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 | Linense | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 6 | EC São Bernardo | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Noroeste | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Juventus | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 9 | Bandeirante SP | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Comercial | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Santo André | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Paulista | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | XV de Piracicaba | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Marília | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Oeste | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | São Caetano | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.