Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra · Referee Mike Palomino · Analysis updated 16:44 UTC
Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Comerciantes Unidos and 1.60 for Cienciano, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Cienciano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.9% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Comerciantes Unidos home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cienciano away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cienciano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 31% / 25% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Comerciantes Unidos and 1.60 for Cienciano, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–17.4%
- 1–07.2%
Recent form
Comerciantes Unidos
- 2026-10-10T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Atletico · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Huancayo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T20:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 2-3 (L)
Cienciano
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV Moquegua · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs ADT · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Torque · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Torque · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.