Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra · Referee J. Alarcon · Analysis updated 15:41 UTC
Comerciantes Unidos vs FC Cajamarca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for Comerciantes Unidos and 1.68 for FC Cajamarca, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Comerciantes Unidos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Comerciantes Unidos win
54.6% probability
Expected goals
2.45 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Comerciantes Unidos home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Cajamarca away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Comerciantes Unidos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 19% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.45 goals for Comerciantes Unidos and 1.68 for FC Cajamarca, a combined 4.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.1%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–16.6%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–25.6%
Recent form
Comerciantes Unidos
- 2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Atletico · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Huancayo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T20:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T18:15:00.000Z · A vs UTC Cajamarca · 3-1 (W)
FC Cajamarca
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cusco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cienciano · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-28T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Comerciantes Unidos · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Grau · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Comerciantes Unidos win, at 54.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.