Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra · Referee Kevin Ortega · Analysis updated 18:37 UTC
Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II College Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Comerciantes Unidos and 1.80 for Juan Pablo II College, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Juan Pablo II College the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Comerciantes Unidos home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Juan Pablo II College away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Juan Pablo II College to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 35% / 23% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Comerciantes Unidos and 1.80 for Juan Pablo II College, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–16.0%
Recent form
Comerciantes Unidos
- 2026-10-10T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Atletico · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Huancayo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T20:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 2-3 (L)
Juan Pablo II College
- 2026-10-25T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Comerciantes Unidos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · H vs UCV Moquegua · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs UTC Cajamarca · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-27T18:00:00.000Z · Comerciantes Unidos 0-0 Juan Pablo II College (Copa De La Liga)
- 2026-04-18T20:15:00.000Z · Comerciantes Unidos 2-2 Juan Pablo II College (Primera División)
- 2025-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · Comerciantes Unidos 1-0 Juan Pablo II College (Primera División)
- 2025-06-22T20:15:00.000Z · Comerciantes Unidos 3-0 Juan Pablo II College (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.