Campo Bela Vista · Analysis updated 13:09 UTC
Comércio Indústria vs O Elvas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Comércio Indústria and 1.55 for O Elvas, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives O Elvas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
O Elvas win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Comércio Indústria home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates O Elvas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 25% / 26% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Comércio Indústria and 1.55 for O Elvas, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–111.8%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–07.8%
Recent form
Comércio Indústria
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Alverca II · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs O Elvas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventude Évora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-03-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sintrense · 0-1 (L)
O Elvas
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs UD da Serra · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sertanense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs União de Leiria · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fazendense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs São Roque (Açores) · 9-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · Comércio Indústria 0-0 O Elvas (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D)
- 2025-12-14T15:00:00.000Z · Comércio Indústria 0-2 O Elvas (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D)
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imortal Albufeira | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Sintrense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | FC Serpa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Juventude Évora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Amora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Real | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Lajense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Lagoa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Alcochetense | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitoria Setubal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | 1º Dezembro | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 5 |
| 12 | Santa Clara B | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Portel | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Aljustrelense | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is O Elvas win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.