Comillas vs Calasancio Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Comillas and 1.20 for Calasancio, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Comillas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Comillas win

60.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.23 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Comillas home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Comillas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 20% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Comillas and 1.20 for Calasancio, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 62%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Comillas win61%

Draw20%

Calasancio win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

2–19.7%
1–18.7%
2–08.1%
1–07.2%
3–17.2%

Recent form

Comillas

2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs La Calzada · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pradejón · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs San Marcial · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sestao River · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cenicero · 0-0 (D)

Calasancio

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Berceo	6	5	0	1	13	15
2	Alfaro	6	4	1	1	3	13
3	Haro Deportivo	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Calahorra	6	4	0	2	11	12
5	La Calzada	6	4	0	2	1	12
6	Pradejón	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Varea	6	2	4	0	2	10
8	San Marcial	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Agoncillo	6	2	2	2	3	8
10	Anguiano	6	2	2	2	2	8
11	Oyonesa	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Yagüe	6	2	0	4	-6	6
13	Cenicero	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	Comillas	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Calasancio	6	1	2	3	-9	5
16	Vianés	6	1	1	4	-1	4
17	River Ebro	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Casalarreina	6	1	0	5	-9	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Comillas win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.