Estadio El Salvador · Analysis updated 18:21 UTC
Comillas vs Varea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.62 expected goals for Comillas and 0.98 for Varea, a combined total of 1.60. That distribution gives Varea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
77.5% probability
Expected goals
0.62 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Comillas home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Varea away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 23% / 35% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.62 goals for Comillas and 0.98 for Varea, a combined 1.60 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–020.3%
- 0–119.8%
- 1–012.5%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–29.7%
Recent form
Comillas
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs La Calzada · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pradejón · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs San Marcial · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sestao River · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cenicero · 0-0 (D)
Varea
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Agoncillo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Oyonesa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs La Calzada · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pradejón · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marcial · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haro Deportivo | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Varea | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Alfaro | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Berceo | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 5 | La Calzada | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Anguiano | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Pradejón | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Calahorra | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 12 |
| 9 | San Marcial | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 10 | Oyonesa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Agoncillo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Calasancio | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Comillas | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Yagüe | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 15 | Cenicero | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Vianés | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 17 | River Ebro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
| 18 | Casalarreina | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 77.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.