Como vs AC Milan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Como and 1.27 for AC Milan, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Como the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.27 – 1.27

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Como home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
AC Milan away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Como to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 27% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Como and 1.27 for AC Milan, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Como win37%

Draw27%

AC Milan win37%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.7%
1–010.0%
0–110.0%
2–18.1%
1–28.1%

Recent form

Como

2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Parma · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 4-1 (W)

AC Milan

2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lecce · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	6	5	1	0	10	16
2	Lazio	6	5	1	0	7	16
3	AS Roma	6	4	2	0	11	14
4	Cagliari	6	4	1	1	3	13
5	AC Milan	6	3	3	0	6	12
6	Juventus	6	3	2	1	4	11
7	Como	6	3	2	1	3	11
8	Napoli	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Frosinone	6	3	1	2	2	10
10	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	0	9
11	Sassuolo	6	2	2	2	0	8
12	Torino	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Lecce	6	2	0	4	-6	6
14	Bologna	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Monza	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Parma	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Fiorentina	6	1	1	4	-7	4
20	Venezia	6	0	0	6	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.