Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia · Analysis updated 14:05 UTC
Como vs Al Ula Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.80 expected goals for Como and 1.01 for Al Ula, a combined total of 3.81. That distribution gives Como the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Como win
74.4% probability
Expected goals
2.80 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Como home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Al Ula away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Como to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 15% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.80 goals for Como and 1.01 for Al Ula, a combined 3.81 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 2–08.7%
- 3–18.2%
- 3–08.1%
- 1–16.3%
Recent form
Como
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Parma · 2-1 (W)
Al Ula
- 2026-10-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Okhdood · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:05:00.000Z · H vs Jeddah Club · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T15:50:00.000Z · A vs Damac · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T17:40:00.000Z · H vs Al-Raed · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Anwar · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · Como 3-1 Al Ula (Como Cup)
Como Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lens | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 6 | Al Ula | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Como win, at 74.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.