Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia · Analysis updated 22:33 UTC
Como vs Cagliari Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Como and 0.95 for Cagliari, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Cagliari the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.3% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Como home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Cagliari away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.1%
- 0–115.3%
- 1–014.1%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–27.3%
Recent form
Como
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Parma · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 4-1 (W)
Cagliari
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Udinese · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lecce · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Hellas Verona · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-07T14:00:00.000Z · Como 2-1 Cagliari (Serie A)
- 2025-11-08T14:00:00.000Z · Como 0-0 Cagliari (Serie A)
- 2025-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · Como 3-1 Cagliari (Serie A)
- 2024-08-26T16:30:00.000Z · Como 1-1 Cagliari (Serie A)
- 2024-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · Como 3-1 Cagliari (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · Como 1-2 Cagliari (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-01-14T13:00:00.000Z · Como 0-2 Cagliari (Serie B)
- 2022-08-13T18:45:00.000Z · Como 1-1 Cagliari (Serie B)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.