Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia · Analysis updated 05:15 UTC
Como vs Frosinone Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Como and 1.18 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Como the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Como or Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Why the model likes this
Como home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Como to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Como and 1.18 for Frosinone, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Como
- 2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Ula · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-24T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 2-2 (D)
Frosinone
- 2026-08-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lazio · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sambenedettese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Ascoli · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone U20 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.