Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia · Referee Giuseppe Mucera, Italy · Analysis updated 20:32 UTC
Como vs Parma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Como and 0.57 for Parma, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Como the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Como win
76.2% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 0.57
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Como home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Como to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 16% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Como and 0.57 for Parma, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–015.0%
- 1–013.2%
- 3–011.4%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–17.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.67 (model 61.0% vs market 56.3%, edge +4.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.67 | 56.3% | 61.0% | 1.64 | +4.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.04 | 91.4% | 92.3% | 1.08 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.80 | 16.0% | 16.1% | 6.21 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.22 | 76.2% | 76.2% | 1.31 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 12.00 | 7.7% | 7.7% | 12.99 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 4.00 | 23.8% | 23.8% | 4.20 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.12 | 84.9% | 83.9% | 1.19 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.15 | 43.7% | 39.0% | 2.56 | -4.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Como
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Parma · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 4-1 (W)
Parma
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Genoa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Como · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · Como 2-1 Parma (Serie A)
- 2026-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · Como 1-0 Parma (Serie A)
- 2025-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · Como 0-0 Parma (Serie A)
- 2025-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · Como 1-0 Parma (Serie A)
- 2024-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · Como 1-1 Parma (Serie A)
- 2024-02-24T15:15:00.000Z · Como 1-1 Parma (Serie B)
- 2023-10-20T18:30:00.000Z · Como 1-2 Parma (Serie B)
- 2023-03-18T13:00:00.000Z · Como 2-0 Parma (Serie B)
- 2022-10-29T12:00:00.000Z · Como 0-1 Parma (Serie B)
- 2022-04-06T12:00:00.000Z · Como 3-4 Parma (Serie B)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Como win, at 76.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.