Stadio Ferruccio · Referee G. Vailati · Analysis updated 16:50 UTC
Como W vs Napoli W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.69 expected goals for Como W and 1.51 for Napoli W, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Como W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Napoli W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Como W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 23% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.69 goals for Como W and 1.51 for Napoli W, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.9%
- 1–06.9%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Como W
Napoli W
- 2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Como 1907 W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Juventus W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Parma W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Milano W · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Lazio W · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Milano W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Roma W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 3 | Como 1907 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Ternana W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Fiorentina W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Como W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | Napoli W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Juventus W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | AC Milan W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Lazio W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 11 | Parma W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 12 | Sassuolo W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.