· Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Comoros vs Yemen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Comoros and 1.64 for Yemen, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Yemen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yemen win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yemen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yemen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 22% / 25% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Comoros and 1.64 for Yemen, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 50%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.0%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.3%
Recent form
Comoros
- 2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Namibia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cameroon · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-09T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Equatorial Guinea · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco U23 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kazakhstan · 0-1 (L)
Yemen
- 2026-06-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lebanon · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-11-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Comoros · 4-4 (D)
- 2025-11-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Bhutan · 7-1 (W)
- 2025-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Brunei · 9-0 (W)
- 2025-10-09T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Brunei · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Arab Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yemen win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.