Compostela vs Atlético Astorga Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Compostela and 1.20 for Atlético Astorga, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Compostela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Compostela home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Compostela to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Compostela and 1.20 for Atlético Astorga, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Compostela win41%

Draw26%

Atlético Astorga win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.6%
1–010.5%
0–19.1%
2–18.6%
0–07.6%

Recent form

Compostela

2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Astorga · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Coruxo · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Oviedo II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Eibar II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sestao River · 2-0 (W)

Atlético Astorga

2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Amorebieta · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sestao River · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Marino de Luanco · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Basconia · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Portugalete · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bergantiños	7	5	2	0	10	17
2	Deportivo Alavés II	7	5	1	1	10	16
3	Sestao River	7	5	1	1	5	16
4	Eibar II	7	4	2	1	7	14
5	Portugalete	7	3	2	2	0	11
6	Compostela	7	3	1	3	1	10
7	Amorebieta	7	3	1	3	1	10
8	Ourense CF	7	3	1	3	-3	10
9	Real Oviedo II	7	3	1	3	-4	10
10	Gernika	7	2	3	2	6	9
11	Basconia	7	2	3	2	-1	9
12	Coruxo	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	Arosa	7	1	4	2	-4	7
14	Llanera	7	2	1	4	-6	7
15	Atlético Astorga	7	2	0	5	-1	6
16	Marino de Luanco	7	2	0	5	-5	6
17	Gimnástica Torrelavega	7	1	2	4	-8	5
18	Racing Santander II	7	1	1	5	-7	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.