· Analysis updated 16:11 UTC
Compostela vs Marino de Luanco Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Compostela and 0.96 for Marino de Luanco, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Compostela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Compostela win
53.9% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Compostela home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marino de Luanco away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.1%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.3%
Recent form
Compostela
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Astorga · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Coruxo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Oviedo II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Eibar II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sestao River · 2-0 (W)
Marino de Luanco
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Basconia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Astorga · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ourense CF · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Compostela · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-02-09T16:00:00.000Z · Compostela 4-2 Marino de Luanco (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2024-09-29T15:00:00.000Z · Compostela 2-0 Marino de Luanco (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2024-01-14T17:00:00.000Z · Compostela 0-2 Marino de Luanco (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · Compostela 0-0 Marino de Luanco (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-05-14T10:00:00.000Z · Compostela 1-1 Marino de Luanco (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-01-15T16:00:00.000Z · Compostela 1-1 Marino de Luanco (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2022-03-06T16:00:00.000Z · Compostela 0-1 Marino de Luanco (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2021-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · Compostela 1-1 Marino de Luanco (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2021-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · Compostela 0-1 Marino de Luanco (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2021-04-11T15:00:00.000Z · Compostela 0-0 Marino de Luanco (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bergantiños | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
| 2 | Deportivo Alavés II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | Sestao River | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Eibar II | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Portugalete | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Compostela | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Amorebieta | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Ourense CF | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | Real Oviedo II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 10 | Gernika | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| 11 | Basconia | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Coruxo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Arosa | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Llanera | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Atlético Astorga | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Marino de Luanco | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Racing Santander II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Compostela win, at 53.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.