· Analysis updated 18:04 UTC
Compostela vs Sestao River Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Compostela and 0.81 for Sestao River, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Compostela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.2% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 0.81
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Compostela home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sestao River away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Compostela to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 32% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Compostela and 0.81 for Sestao River, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.4%
- 0–015.7%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.7%
- 2–08.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.65 (model 64.1% vs market 56.0%, edge +8.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.65 | 56.0% | 64.1% | 1.56 | +8.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.40 | 67.1% | 68.0% | 1.47 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Home | 2.25 | 40.1% | 40.2% | 2.49 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.25 | 27.7% | 27.8% | 3.60 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.3% | 72.2% | 1.39 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.80 | 32.2% | 32.0% | 3.13 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.55 | 60.6% | 59.8% | 1.67 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.10 | 44.0% | 35.9% | 2.79 | -8.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Compostela
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Astorga · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Coruxo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Oviedo II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Eibar II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sestao River · 2-0 (W)
Sestao River
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gernika · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Terrassa · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Astorga · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Compostela · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · Compostela 2-0 Sestao River (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2024-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · Compostela 1-0 Sestao River (Copa Federacion)
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bergantiños | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
| 2 | Deportivo Alavés II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | Sestao River | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Eibar II | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Portugalete | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Compostela | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Amorebieta | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Ourense CF | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | Real Oviedo II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 10 | Gernika | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| 11 | Basconia | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Coruxo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Arosa | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Llanera | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Atlético Astorga | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Marino de Luanco | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Racing Santander II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.