Estadio Doroteo Guamuch Flores · Analysis updated 10:44 UTC
Comunicaciones vs Guastatoya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Comunicaciones and 0.64 for Guastatoya, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Comunicaciones the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Comunicaciones win
52.9% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Comunicaciones home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Guastatoya away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.6%
- 0–014.2%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.60 (model 65.5% vs market 57.9%, edge +7.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.60 | 57.9% | 65.5% | 1.53 | +7.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 80.9% | 81.8% | 1.22 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.05 | 46.2% | 47.1% | 2.12 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.0% | 18.2% | 5.49 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.70 | 53.0% | 52.9% | 1.89 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.0% | 28.9% | 3.46 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.9% | 71.1% | 1.41 | -1.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.20 | 42.1% | 34.5% | 2.90 | -7.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Comunicaciones
- 2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Antigua GFC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Malacateco · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Aurora · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo San Pedro · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Suchitepéquez · 0-0 (D)
Guastatoya
- 2026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Municipal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Antigua GFC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Malacateco · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Aurora · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo San Pedro · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T02:00:00.000Z · Comunicaciones 1-2 Guastatoya (Liga Nacional)
- 2026-04-21T01:00:00.000Z · Comunicaciones 1-0 Guastatoya (Liga Nacional)
- 2026-02-28T22:00:00.000Z · Comunicaciones 3-1 Guastatoya (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-10-12T22:00:00.000Z · Comunicaciones 0-0 Guastatoya (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-08-03T23:00:00.000Z · Comunicaciones 2-2 Guastatoya (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-03-09T23:00:00.000Z · Comunicaciones 1-3 Guastatoya (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-01-21T22:00:00.000Z · Comunicaciones 0-0 Guastatoya (Liga Nacional)
- 2024-11-11T00:00:00.000Z · Comunicaciones 3-0 Guastatoya (Liga Nacional)
- 2024-08-24T21:00:00.000Z · Comunicaciones 2-1 Guastatoya (Liga Nacional)
- 2024-04-14T22:00:00.000Z · Comunicaciones 0-2 Guastatoya (Liga Nacional)
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guastatoya | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 27 |
| 2 | Municipal | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 3 | Antigua GFC | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | Marquense | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 24 |
| 5 | Deportivo San Pedro | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | Xelajú | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 21 |
| 7 | Mixco | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 21 |
| 8 | Aurora | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | Cobán Imperial | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 | Comunicaciones | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Malacateco | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 12 | Suchitepéquez | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | -16 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Comunicaciones win, at 52.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.