Stade Guy Piriou · Analysis updated 16:54 UTC
Concarneau vs Orleans Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Concarneau and 0.77 for Orleans, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Concarneau the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Concarneau win
56.6% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Concarneau home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Orleans away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.2%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–09.6%
- 2–19.1%
Recent form
Concarneau
- 2026-10-17T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Bastia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Gobelins · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Caen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Aubagne · 2-1 (W)
Orleans
- 2026-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bastia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cannes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Amiens · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Versailles · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Puy Foot · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-07T18:45:00.000Z · Concarneau 0-2 Orleans (Ligue 3)
- 2026-04-10T17:30:00.000Z · Concarneau 1-1 Orleans (Ligue 3)
- 2025-11-07T18:30:00.000Z · Concarneau 3-0 Orleans (Ligue 3)
- 2025-02-07T18:30:00.000Z · Concarneau 1-2 Orleans (Ligue 3)
- 2024-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · Concarneau 3-2 Orleans (Ligue 3)
- 2023-05-26T19:00:00.000Z · Concarneau 2-1 Orleans (Ligue 3)
- 2022-08-12T17:30:00.000Z · Concarneau 1-1 Orleans (Ligue 3)
- 2022-01-29T18:00:00.000Z · Concarneau 0-1 Orleans (Ligue 3)
- 2021-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · Concarneau 0-0 Orleans (Ligue 3)
- 2021-05-10T18:45:00.000Z · Concarneau 1-3 Orleans (Ligue 3)
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Rouen | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Versailles | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Caen | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | Concarneau | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Le Puy Foot | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Amiens | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 8 | Cannes | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 9 | Fleury 91 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Gobelins | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Quevilly | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Thionville Lusitanos | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Bastia | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | Valenciennes | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Orleans | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Aubagne | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 | Villefranche | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 18 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Concarneau win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.