Stade Guy Piriou · Analysis updated 08:50 UTC
Concarneau vs Thionville Lusitanos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Concarneau and 1.70 for Thionville Lusitanos, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Thionville Lusitanos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Thionville Lusitanos win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Concarneau home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thionville Lusitanos away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thionville Lusitanos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 21% / 24% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Concarneau and 1.70 for Thionville Lusitanos, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.0%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.1%
Recent form
Concarneau
- 2026-10-17T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Bastia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Gobelins · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Caen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Aubagne · 2-1 (W)
Thionville Lusitanos
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Puy Foot · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs La Roche VF · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Fleury 91 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Rouen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Concarneau · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Rouen | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Versailles | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Caen | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | Concarneau | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Le Puy Foot | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Amiens | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 8 | Cannes | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 9 | Fleury 91 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Gobelins | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Quevilly | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Thionville Lusitanos | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Bastia | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | Valenciennes | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Orleans | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Aubagne | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 | Villefranche | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 18 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Thionville Lusitanos win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.