Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Concepción and 1.16 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Concepción the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.27 – 1.16

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Concepción home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Coquimbo Unido away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Concepción to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Concepción and 1.16 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Concepción win39%

Draw27%

Coquimbo Unido win34%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–113.0%
1–011.2%
0–110.2%
0–08.8%
2–18.3%

Recent form

Concepción

2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs O'Higgins · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs O'Higgins · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Curico Unido · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-23T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Curico Unido · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Colo Colo · 1-1 (D)

Coquimbo Unido

2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colo Colo · 5-2 (W)
2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobreloa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cobreloa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobresal · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Chile · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Colo Colo	24	17	3	4	23	54
2	Universidad de Chile	24	13	6	5	22	45
3	U. Catolica	23	13	3	7	17	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	11	6	7	13	39
5	Palestino	24	11	4	9	3	37
6	Deportes Limache	24	10	4	10	8	34
7	Coquimbo Unido	23	9	5	9	3	32
8	Concepción	24	9	5	10	-1	32
9	Nublense	24	8	8	8	-9	32
10	Huachipato	23	9	4	10	-6	31
11	D. La Serena	24	7	9	8	-5	30
12	A. Italiano	23	7	7	9	-5	28
13	O'Higgins	24	8	3	13	-10	27
14	Cobresal	24	7	4	13	-10	25
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	6	5	13	-22	23
16	Union La Calera	24	4	6	14	-21	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.